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Fantastic Anachronism, Forecasting Forecasting (a):
Why pay tens of thousands for a prediction market (which takes time and effort to organize) when you can just give a couple of grand to Nuño and get better answers, faster?
With the right kind of marketing angle I could easily see Samotsvety becoming a kind of 21st century McKinsey for the hip SV crowd that wants to signal that it needs actual advice rather than political cover.
WIRED: Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts (a) covers our group at some length throughout the article.
In October, the Samotsvety group updated their predictions. In a blog post published on October 3, they estimated that the chance of London being hit with a nuclear weapon in the next three months was now around 0.02 percent. Since their previous prediction only covered a single month, it’s hard to directly compare these forecasts in terms of micromorts, but Sempere estimates that their projected risk for a Londoner over the next one-to-three months may now be around 40 micromorts
CNN: How to assess the risk of nuclear war without freaking out (a):
One group of highly regarded forecasters put the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon against London before February 2023 at 0.8%1
El País: Is it possible to predict the future of the war in Ukraine? Online forecasting communities think so (a, es):
What risk is there for an alert citizen in London of dying next month due to a nuclear explosion? Some 24 micro deaths, 24 options in a million, according to the group of renowned forecasters of which Nuño Sempere, from Madrid, is a part.
Astral Codex Ten: Mantic Monday (a):
Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.
INFER: The Making of a Top Forecaster: Techniques to Boost Accuracy (a):
The Good Judgment Project’s research also showed the value of working in teams. Teams who debated their forecasts (usually virtually) performed better than individuals working alone. Perhaps that’s yet another technique benefitting top forecaster Sempere (@Loki), who meets regularly with his two teammates, @yagudin (also in the top 1%) and @elifland, to discuss and evaluate questions from different angles.
- We gave a 0.8% annualized probability to a Russia/NATO nuclear exchange killing at least one person in the first month of the conflict.↩