Samotsvety is a forecasting group focused on predicting impactful questions for fun & profit

We are a group of forecasters with a great track record working on applying forecasting to impactful questions. We hope to improve the forecasting ecosystem.

Samotsvety Soviet Band

Wait, no, we are a forecasting team, not a Soviet Union band.

Scott Alexander describes us as:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

We are open to forecasting consulting requests, and can be reached out at info@samotsvety.org. Readers might also want to view our track record, browse our projects or read our media mentions.