Samotsvety is a forecasting group focused on predicting impactful questions for fun & profit

Team achievements

The Samotsvety Forecasting team at INFER/CSET-Foretell—composed out of Nuño, Misha, Eli—took:

The above links require signing in, so here is a screenshot of our performance in the 2021 season:

Note that we are a bit more than twice as good as the next best team, in terms of the relative Brier score

As of 2022-09-15, we are also 4th on the nascent Insight Prediction leaderboard as a result of one (1) large bet when we correctly foresaw the Russian invasion of Ukraine and put our money where our mouth was:


Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spots on INFER’s overall leaderboard:

All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15:

Misha Yagudin

Nuño Sempere

Alex Lyzhov

Eli Lifland

Jonathan Mann

Juan Cambeiro

Sam Glover

Molly Hickman

Gregory Lewis

Pablo Stafforini

Jared Leibowich

Greg Justice


Tolga Bilge