The Samotsvety Forecasting team at INFER/CSET-Foretell—composed out of Nuño, Misha, Eli—took:
- 1st place in 2020, with a relative score of -0.912 (vs. -0.062 by the 2nd best team). Individually we finished 5th, 6th, and 7th.
- 1st place in 2021 with a relative score of -2.43 (vs. -1.039 by the 2nd best team and vs. 0.064 by “2021 Pro Forecasters”). Individually we finished 1st, 3rd, and 4th.
- We still hold 1st place in 2022, despite us reducing our participation.
The above links require signing in, so here is a screenshot of our performance in the 2021 season:
As of 2022-09-15, we are also 4th on the nascent Insight Prediction leaderboard as a result of one (1) large bet when we correctly foresaw the Russian invasion of Ukraine and put our money where our mouth was:
Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spots on INFER’s overall leaderboard:
All scores mentioned below are as of 2022-09-15:
- Runs a research consultancy Arb Research
- GJOpen Brier score 0.191 vs. 0.283 median, ratio 0.67
- 7th and 3rd place forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER (I, II); 3rd all-time (as of 2022/9/15).
- Researcher at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute
- GJOpen Brier score 0.209 vs. 0.294 median, ratio 0.71
- Top 5 forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER (I,II); 4th all-time (as of 2022/9/15)
- ML PhD student at NYU
- Participates primarily in AI-related forecasts due to expertise
- Active Metaculus contributor
- Figuring out what’s up with AI alignment (and sometimes other stuff), writing Foxy Scout.
- GJOpen Brier score 0.23 vs. 0.301 median, ratio 0.76
- 1st forecaster of all time on CSET-Foretell/INFER (as of 2022/9/15)
- 2nd in Metaculus Economist 2021 tournament, 1st in Salk Tournament (as of 2022/9/10).
- Track record is described in detail here
- Professional in the financial sector
- GJOpen Brier score 0.155 vs. 0.247 median, ratio 0.63
- Pro forecaster on INFER
- About + Github
- MPH student in epidemiology at Columbia University
- Biosecurity fellow at the Institute for Progress
- Good Judgment Superforecaster
- Analyst for Metaculus
- GJOpen Brier score 0.25 vs. 0.317 median, ratio 0.79
- First in IARPA’s FOCUS Tournament on COVID-19 forecasting
- First in Good Judgment Open’s US Election 2020 challenge
- Second in Good Judgment Open’s In the News 2020 challenge
- First in the time active on Good Judgment Open’s Coronavirus Outbreak challenge, now third
- Writes about social science at samstack.io
- Good Judgment Superforecaster
- GJOpen Brier score 0.228vs 0.309 median, ratio 0.74, increased significantly since becoming inactive in late 2021
- Data scientist at nLine, Inc., and previously worked on crowd-sourced prediction projects on the evaluation side.
- Top 2 forecaster of all time on INFER (as of 2022/9/15); 2nd place forecaster in season 2021 (-1.684 relative Brier score); 8th place forecaster in season 2020 (-0.529 relative Brier score)
- Ex public health doctor, now working in biosecurity
- Good Judgment Superforecaster (since 2021)
- GJOpen Brier score 0.226 vs. 0.313 median, ratio 0.72
- Philosopher by training, currently editor of the Global Priorities Encyclopedia.
- 1st place in Road to Recovery tournament
- 3rd place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament I tournament
- 1st place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament II tournament
- See my Metaculus profile for additional information.
- Data Scientist
- Forecaster for the Swift Centre
- GJO Brier score 0.22 vs. 0.303 median, ratio 0.73
- Placed 1st out of 7,000 “In the News 2021” Good Judgment competition
- Currently ranked 1st out of 3,000 “In the News 2022” Good Judgment competition
- Analyst in the healthcare space
- GJOpen Brier score 0.187 vs. 0.251 median, ratio 0.75
- 1st place in Adam Grant’s Think Again challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11)
- 4th place - Olivier Sibony’s Noise challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11)
- 7th place - Good Judgment Project 2.0, in initial accuracy (as of 2022-09-11)
- MA in Economics, PhD in Neuroscience
- GJOpen Brier score 0.215 vs. 0.279 median, ratio 0.77
- Recently, also forecasting at INFER, Metaculus, Manifold Markets