Samotsvety is a forecasting group focused on predicting impactful questions for fun & profit

Team achievements

The Samotsvety Forecasting team at INFER/CSET-Foretell—composed out of Nuño, Misha, Eli—took:

The above links require signing in, so here is a screenshot of our performance in the 2021 season:

Note that we are a bit more than twice as good as the next best team, in terms of the relative Brier score

As of 2022-09-15, we are also 4th on the nascent Insight Prediction leaderboard as a result of one (1) large bet when we correctly foresaw the Russian invasion of Ukraine and put our money where our mouth was:


Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spots on INFER’s overall leaderboard:

For each forecaster below, the time at which their profile was last updated is indicated in a superscript.

Misha Yagudin2023-05-27

Nuño Sempere2023-05-27

Alex Lyzhov2022-09-15

Eli Lifland2022-09-15

Jonathan Mann2023-05-27

Juan Cambeiro2022-09-15

Sam Glover2022-09-15

Molly Hickman2022-09-15

Gregory Lewis2022-09-15

Pablo Stafforini2022-09-15

Jared Leibowich2022-09-15

Greg Justice2022-09-15


Tolga Bilge2023-05-30

Vidur Kapur2032-01-22