Samotsvety is a forecasting group focused on predicting impactful questions for fun & profit

Team achievements

The Samotsvety Forecasting team at INFER/CSET-Foretell—composed out of Nuño, Misha, Eli—took:

• 1st place in 2020, with a relative score of -0.912 (vs. -0.062 by the 2nd best team). Individually we finished 5th, 6th, and 7th.
• 1st place in 2021 with a relative score of -2.43 (vs. -1.039 by the 2nd best team and vs. 0.064 by “2021 Pro Forecasters”). Individually we finished 1st, 3rd, and 4th.
• We still hold 1st place in 2022, despite us reducing our participation.
• A few of our forecasters have now become Superforecasters™, indicated below.

The above links require signing in, so here is a screenshot of our performance in the 2021 season:

As of 2022-09-15, we are also 4th on the nascent Insight Prediction leaderboard as a result of one (1) large bet when we correctly foresaw the Russian invasion of Ukraine and put our money where our mouth was:

Individuals

Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spots on INFER’s overall leaderboard:

For each forecaster below, the time at which their profile was last updated is indicated in a superscript.

Misha Yagudin^2023-05-27

• Runs a research consultancy Arb Research
• GJOpen Brier score 0.185 vs. 0.275 median, ratio 0.67
• 7th and 3rd place forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER (I, II); 3rd all-time (as of 2022/9/15).

Nuño Sempere^2023-05-27

• Researcher at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute
• GJOpen Brier score 0.206 vs. 0.29 median, ratio 0.71
• Top 5 forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER (I,II); 4th all-time (as of 2022/9/15)

Alex Lyzhov^2022-09-15

• ML PhD student at NYU
• Participates primarily in AI-related forecasts due to expertise
• Active Metaculus contributor

Eli Lifland^2022-09-15

• Figuring out what’s up with AI alignment (and sometimes other stuff), writing Foxy Scout.
• GJOpen Brier score 0.23 vs. 0.301 median, ratio 0.76
• 1st forecaster of all time on CSET-Foretell/INFER (as of 2022/9/15)
• 2nd in Metaculus Economist 2021 tournament, 1st in Salk Tournament (as of 2022/9/10).
• Track record is described in detail here

Jonathan Mann^2023-05-27

• Professional in the financial sector
• GJOpen Brier score 0.156 vs. 0.246 median, ratio 0.63
• Pro forecaster on INFER
• About + Github
• Superforecaster™
• INFER All-Star

Juan Cambeiro^2022-09-15

• MPH student in epidemiology at Columbia University
• Biosecurity fellow at the Institute for Progress
• Good Judgment Superforecaster
• Analyst for Metaculus
• GJOpen Brier score 0.25 vs. 0.317 median, ratio 0.79
• First in IARPA’s FOCUS Tournament on COVID-19 forecasting
• First in Good Judgment Open’s US Election 2020 challenge
• Second in Good Judgment Open’s In the News 2020 challenge
• First in the time active on Good Judgment Open’s Coronavirus Outbreak challenge, now third

Sam Glover^2022-09-15

• Writes about social science at samstack.io
• Good Judgment Superforecaster
• GJOpen Brier score 0.228vs 0.309 median, ratio 0.74, increased significantly since becoming inactive in late 2021

Molly Hickman^2022-09-15

• Data scientist at nLine, Inc., and previously worked on crowd-sourced prediction projects on the evaluation side.
• Top 2 forecaster of all time on INFER (as of 2022/9/15); 2nd place forecaster in season 2021 (-1.684 relative Brier score); 8th place forecaster in season 2020 (-0.529 relative Brier score)

Gregory Lewis^2022-09-15

• Ex public health doctor, now working in biosecurity
• Good Judgment Superforecaster (since 2021)
• GJOpen Brier score 0.226 vs. 0.313 median, ratio 0.72

Pablo Stafforini^2022-09-15

• Philosopher by training, currently editor of the Global Priorities Encyclopedia.
• 1st place in Road to Recovery tournament
• 3rd place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament I tournament
• 1st place in Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament II tournament
• See my Metaculus profile for additional information.

Jared Leibowich^2022-09-15

• Data Scientist
• Forecaster for the Swift Centre
• GJO Brier score 0.22 vs. 0.303 median, ratio 0.73
• Placed 1st out of 7,000 “In the News 2021” Good Judgment competition
• Currently ranked 1st out of 3,000 “In the News 2022” Good Judgment competition
• Superforecaster™

Greg Justice^2022-09-15

• Analyst in the healthcare space
• GJOpen Brier score 0.187 vs. 0.251 median, ratio 0.75
• 1st place in Adam Grant’s Think Again challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11)
• 4th place - Olivier Sibony’s Noise challenge on GJ Open (as of 2022-09-11)
• 7th place - Good Judgment Project 2.0, in initial accuracy (as of 2022-09-11)
• Superforecaster™

@belikewater^2022-09-15

• MA in Economics, PhD in Neuroscience
• GJOpen Brier score 0.208 vs. 0.253 median, ratio 0.82
• Recently, also forecasting at INFER, Metaculus, Manifold Markets
• Superforecaster™
• INFER Pro forecaster

Tolga Bilge^2023-05-30

• Mathematics student
• GJI Superforecaster
• Forecaster for the Swift Centre
• GJOpen Brier score 0.164 vs. 0.254 median, ratio 0.65
• 2023 Pro Forecaster on INFER

Vidur Kapur^2032-01-22

• Holds degrees in Medicine and Public Health
• Good Judgment Superforecaster
• GJ Open Brier score 0.276 vs. 0.372 median, ratio 0.74
• 4th place forecaster for both initial and final forecast in the Good Judgment Project 2.0 (GJP 2.0) COVID-19 forecasting tournament